Match up for tonight

After Manchester United sealed their 20th league triumph with the help of a quickfire hat-trick from RVP, next up on the footballing world’s roster is the mouth-watering tie of Bayern Munich vs Barcelona. Easily the more eagerly anticipated of the two semifinal ties, this match is set to be a marker on where these teams stand in world football with both of them arguably fighting for the top two spots. While Bayern Munich is said to be on the rise and on the brink of starting their own era of Barca-like dominance, Barca themselves are looking to prove that Barca-like dominance is exclusive to Barca and no one else. Sure, Bayern is at its sharpest, boasting a depth in its squad like no one else on the planet and certainly more than Barca, but Barca also has a player unlike anyone one else on the planet named Lionel Messi and as has been the case in recent times, the tie will most likely hinge upon whether Messi can be stopped, something which teams have been unable to do even when he is half-fit!

The Messi factor

Lionel Messi is fit and has the green light from the medical staff at Barcelona to feature in the tie. That is the official news. Although Jordi Roura, the assistant coach of Barca who will give all press conferences till the end of this season instead of Tito Vilanova who is recovering from his cancer treatment, has said, “Messi is feeling good, he’s motivated, but we’ll see how the last training goes. We’ll decide tomorrow if he plays”, Messi will start if Tito saw what all of us saw – the difference he made to the team in the form of a substitute against PSG in the 2nd leg of the quarter finals. You could make a 30 minute Hollywood sports movie with the footage of that match if you wanted, with Messi pacing the sidelines restlessly, showing his eagerness to get on to the pitch once the PSG goal went in and finally the immediate impact he made and the visible change he brought about in the entire team –  attack, midfield and even defence, when he came on.

Therefore, Messi should definitely start, not just for the attacking threat he poses, but the psychological edge that he provides to his team. Although it might be too late in this season, Barca would do better to figure out a good plan to deal with the absence of Messi, if and when he is injured. Yes, Barca’s game play is designed to maximise Messi’s potential and yes, Messi is rarely injured, but if that rarity coincides with big European nights such as these, Barca will surely be in trouble. It is anyone’s guess as to who would have made it to the semifinals had Messi been more seriously injured in the tie against PSG. Cristian Tello has been putting in some good performances recently in the absence of Messi and it would be worth a shot to devise a strategy centering around him as he has that electric pace which can really make a difference in deadlock situations. Perhaps more about that and Neymar in another post.

Bayern’s perfect squad

Currently, no other team in the world can boast of a squad as deep and as flexible as Bayern. Their youth policy, boasting a youth academy which is not very much behind Barca’s famous La Masia; and shrewd transfer dealings have combined to form a squad in which players can be rotated frequently without it affecting the scoreline at all. Despite making eight changes to the team which played the previous match, Bayern flatted Hannover 6-1 in the league match on Saturday. That is one of the key aspects which helped them win the Bundesliga league title in record time with six games to spare!

With their leading goalscorer Mandzukic suspended and their playmaker Kroos injured, one would imagine that Bayern would be ill-equipped to deal with Barca. But once you know that Mandzukic will be replaced by Gomez and in place of Kroos, Muller will be pushed to the center and Robben will start on the right, you will realise that it is not much of a worry. Although Gomez hasn’t really lit the stage this season with his traditional goals which come in bunches, he is still third in their list of goalscorers in the league behind Mandzukic and Muller with 10 goals. Robben is also not really at his best trail-blazing form, but he has pace in abundance and pace is what troubles Barca. At worst he can run at Jordi Alba and wait for Philipp Lahm to arrive who will then look to add to his incredible tally of 14 assists this season.

The midfield battle

Bayern Munich this season has an average possession of 64% with a pass success rate of 87% second only to Barcelona who average 70% possession with a 90% completion rate. Therefore, Bayern very much like Barcelona is a team that thrives on possession. But that is going to be a bit of a problem when you face Barcelona. The Barca triangle of Busquets-Xavi-Iniesta will encounter the double pivot of Javier Martinez and Schweinsteiger and this is where the match will be won or lost. Busquets will be tasked with protecting the flimsy back-four of Barca which leaves us with a two-on-two situation. But that is where Messi comes in as Messi will drop into midfield more than once in the game and Martinez will most likely be the man assigned with the task of marking him, a role with which he will be familiar from his time in La Liga.

Martinez actually marked Messi very well in the games in which he faced him. Therefore, should Martinez mark him and should Messi drift in and out of midfield, both of which are very much possible and will surely keep Martinez occupied, Schweinsteiger will need some help from Muller who is the most work-minded of the attackers. How this mechanism works out and who wins the upper hand in this battle should play a major role in determining who the victor is.

Form and expected starting line-ups

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Neuer – Lahm, van Buyten, Dante, Alaba – Martinez, Schweinsteiger – Robben, Muller, Ribery – Gomez

Barcelona (4-3-3): Valdes – Alves, Pique, Bartra, Alba – Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta – Sanchez, Messi, Pedro

Bayern is in top form after their 6-1 win against Hannover. Their defence is solid – solid enough to keep a clean sheet in both legs of their tie against Juventus. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for Barca who haven’t really arrived in their top form after their 1-0 win against Levante and neither do they have a solid defence, which has been the case the whole season. Marc Bartra is set to have a look in since he has the height factor and also because he is a natural defender, both of  which are rarities in Barca defenders these days. Since this is the first leg, there will not be as much pressure on him, as mistakes made can still be overcome in the second leg in the comfort of home crowd.

Finally, it will be interesting to see if Bayern will change their style to improve their chances, especially in front of their home crowd, by soaking up the pressure and springing speedy counter-attacks. They have the setup to do it, with Gomez who is a very reliable hold-up player up front and Robben and Ribery who can provide the necessary pace. Barcelona though will be unfazed and will simply go about their business as usual.

All in all, these matches are what football fans live for. It will surely be a delight for the neutrals and a nail-biter for the Catalan and Bavarian fans.